Assess Risk, Insurance, Contingency Planning

Hi Charles, thanks for reminding me about that comment. With the chessboard of obstacles in the way, I feel like Paul the octopus - (lining up 7 wins in a row) - my guess is social entrepreneurs live the level of life, represented in the movie Paycheck with Ben Affleck, in that it's about having everything you need around you at the time that you need it.In making it happen, I think the bigger risk is in not listening to intuition, it's just the way it rolls.

Contemplating 'is this all there is?' I think the inherent risk lies in scaling. You're right though, it's passion you need to achieve it. And in trying to do something different I say to people, courage to the lion.

One of my favorite quotes is - the limits of your imagination are the limits of your world - and in the act of bringing the unmanifest into being, I agree it's about a higher calling...

...remember Charles, people don't like to talk about risk, they just do it.

Hi, Jo:

Nice to read you here.

You end you comment with "..remember Charles, people don't like to talk about risk, they just do it." I hope that won't prevent some of us telling our stories of risk and balance -- which brings me to another point.

I'm looking at Jason's graphic for this event, and it makes me wonder: is balance the antidote to risk?

What do you (readers here, Jo definitely included) think?

Whether you think you can or think you can't, either way you're right.

~ Henry Ford

Like anything balance is required no one gets to be successful in life without it, and yeah in business terms, risk needs to be balanced with prudence, we've all seen what results when it's not.

But when you're talking to a group of risk-takers I'd say, go with your initial hunch, society at large has a way of crowding over it. One way or another, like David said in the linked intro because ...risk is an emotive word that masks the value of uncertainty...the secret of the spark is no secret, that one should throw oneself with disciplined love into all life's moments.

It reminds me of something Jeff said last year, in a letter between Tolstoy and Gandhi - the same thing about human harmony - like the old En Vogue song, free your mind and the rest will follow...

...or like Tolstoy said 'everything I know I know only because I love'
so in the immortal words of Wordsworth 'let nature be your teacher.'

It's one way of leapfrogging risk. So like Prakash mused in the other conversation, we must otherwise 'we are co-opted, or silenced.'

And there's more to life than staying in a conventional pattern, which lets the fear of risk take over, Wordsworth had it right, ' getting and spending we lay waste our powers.'

Hey I get the Henry Ford quote Terry, he knew about the power of visualization to achieve what you want - everything depends on how you think about it and with the risk in that, it's best to navigate away from hot air balloons.
 
It's instead of being an ostrich in the sand, that the higher calling is in creating the richest possible lives, for our fellow human beings, even if it means creating income streams, clutched to the teeth of the wind.

In creating social benefit, wouldn't you agree Charles there's no life without risk. If the aim is to create a sustainable and just world, going back to what Henry Ford was saying his advice would also be, 'be vigilant with your thoughts'

coupled with Gandhi's advice; 'always aim at complete harmony of thought...

...and everything will be well.'

...that's of course giving Henry Ford the benefit of the doubt, that he hadn't known about the adverse effects of the Industrial age's preference for the combustible engine. One thing's for sure, he wasn't afraid of scale.

About stories of risk Charles, I'll leave it to others to tell tales.

I've just been watching a video of Arundhati Roy -- now, there's someone who's not afraid to take risks!

hey about hazards (when dealing with quantitative vs qualitative risk in a process, or with a recognized threat) there's not only one way to do risk assessment. The calculation of components - the magnitude of the potential loss and the probability of it occurring - need to be weighed with the health and safety (of all) not with just weighing benefits against costs.
  
In challenging prediction, my advice is to bite the bullet, don't overcomplicate the process just do it, keep a singular focus and don't get distracted, rather than being steered by caution. Adopt measures that are self- sustaining.

I just wanted to wish Carlos well, and hope he got his small business school up and running, and that it wasn't like Jeff recounted in the Dylan song '...heard 10 000 whispers and nobody's listenin'

of course, risk like life, is as fluid and transient as breath...

...and Charles, thanks for introducing me to Arundhati Roy.

I think it's time to start massaging ideas, around true universals, otherwise like Bob Dylan said, 'all the truth in the world adds up to one big lie'

so to avoid it all just blowing in the wind, I think we're wise to take Bob's advice, and 'take each thing as it is, without prior rules about what it should be'

especially if we want to eliminate self-serving agendas - think insurance - in creating new cultural forms.

Hi, Jo:

Two things -- Arundhati Roy is famous first for her novel, The God of Small Things, and second for her impassioned political writings. What caught my attention a day or two ago was this documentary about her:

http://www.snagfilms.com/films/title/dam_age/

The other thing is that I'd love to see you write something of your own -- perhaps you already have? -- exploring the backgound and presuppositions of your own approach, and how they lead you to (as) social enterprise and (b) online conversation as key vectors...

Warm regards, C

Hi Charles,

Sorry I'm late joining the party. When I first saw the topic it reminded me of a meeting I had earlier this summer with an insurance auditor who was reminding me of all of the ways my organization was "at risk" because of inadequate systems.

All I could think of was "how can I drain the swamp when I'm up to my head in alligators?"

I wonder why some discussions on SE get more traction than others. Perhaps others looked at this the way I did.

I think that this discussion of risk and courage should be sub-divided.

For instance, if you work in a big company like Sears, and you launch a new idea, like the Discovery card, you're taking a huge risk. However, you're doing so within a very well-supported environment.

On the other hand, if you decide to launch a new venture, with the help of a few volunteers, and with no source of revenue in sight, that's a different level of risk, especially if you have a wife, small child, and a monthly mortgage to pay. That's what I did in 1992 when I started Cabrini Connections, Tutor/Mentor Connection.

I'm not sure it was courage that made me do this. Rather it was the only door that I could see open to me at that time. I decided to go through it. How many people are leading SEs or innovative non profits today, because that's the direction their life-path led them? During the year's I've been doing this I've had to learn to overcome all sorts of obstacles. I'm sure there would be many others who might share their own perceptions of "risk" based on similar experiences.

In a discussion about MBAs a while back, we talked about how much this degree was needed. In your introduction to this discussion you talked about "the practical skills needed to recognize and get past the obstacles".

Thus, there's a third category for risk taker. And that's the person who studies the problem and the solution, thinks it through, and builds a business plan, and finds some investors, THEN, takes the leap and launches the initiative. I think MBAs would fit into this category. They are taking a RISK, but with much more foresight than people in my category, and with much less security than the people at Sears.

Thus, maybe when people respond to this question in the future, they might tell what category they are in.

Hi Daniel:

Your "three degrees of risk-taking" (to coin a phrase) is a fascinating analysis, and I join you in inviting others to say where they find themselves in those terms. I also appreciate your comment that you're "not sure it was courage that made me do this. Rather it was the only door that I could see open to me at that time. I decided to go through it." I've heard something very similar from a man who stormed an enemy machine-gun emplacement in wartime -- "I wasn't brave at all, I just knew I had to stop that terrible yammering sound of the gun..."

Doris Lessing was saying something of the same kind, I think, when she wrote of "answering the Necessity" as the best way of life...

(for people doing brave things) to avoid risk, I agree with Doris Lessing, "a simple thought turned heavenwards is the most perfect prayer" or with 'The God of Small Things' as Arundhati Roy said, it's about 'shining the light' on freedom of speech and accountability. Both examples show 'any human anywhere will blossom in a 100 unexpected talents and capacities simply by being given the opportunity to do so.'

Daniel's right, it often only takes 3 degrees to connect the dots. Just as 3 degrees is the coin's head, 3 movements to a shift is the coin's tail. (Some people need to repeat the process, so that jumps the 3 to 6. If they're really stuck, it might take 9...and then after that, it's probably best left up to a 12-step program.) So while turning negatives into positives, it's a good idea not to focus too much on insurance yeah? And like anything, it's often interventions that have the greatest impact.

What about you Charles? What role has risk played in your life?

As for my own story, I'm a free agent (and a freedom fighter not just a writer.) What really surprises me with that, is there's no limits to human knowledge. And, in answering the necessity, it's quite ok to gatecrash the future, regardless of the risks.

That's what learning is. As Doris Lessing put it, 'you suddenly understand something you've understood all your life, but in a new way' - to create a safe harbor in a capsized world - and that's all it takes, belief

to create a new social contract, (in transforming societies) the best kind of insurance is, the kind that underwrites it, so society doesn't come to grief.


   

Hi, Jo:

QUOTE: What about you Charles? What role has risk played in your life? UNQUOTE

Ha! I suppose I've done a fair number of (what appear to others to be) risky things in my time, but I have them framed under "trust" rather than "risk" -- does that make sense?

ah Charles, risk with trust is the recipe for being wholly committed.

And it's good to know too, without risk nothing new ever happens. I'm sure your risky things have made you who you are, yeah? I also agree connecting (the dots) can be a risky business but putting trust with risk means having a focus on instinct

as E E Cummings put it '...we can risk any experience that reveals the human spirit'...

and having a theology degree, you'd get that ( when to expect more than others think possible) the risk is to dare to try.

Because there's more risk in not trying right? As all great achievement involves great risk, I forgot who said it, but it's true only a person who risks is free.

hey I'm going to add a few more ideas to the mix... like any work in progress, when it comes to thawing relations across sectors, borders or boundaries, in creating new paradigms, or for reunification and reciprocity through interaction and economic assistance, there's always an element of risk to any action yeah.

With the polarities of the metaphoric man - clutching his coat as the sun and the wind compete to remove it, the sun only winning when the man voluntarily takes it off to enjoy the fine weather - so too with risk-taking in peacemaking (for prosperity and peaceful coexistence) reciprocity in reunification have to be involved, as with the sunshine policy, gentleness does more than violence. It's about creating photosynthetic chemical bonds for societies to gel, not deciding who's stronger by conjuring up fear.

So risk-taking is not just an analogy about the interconnectedness between things, (like music with maths) but in learning about 'fiveness' for game design, and for the 'triadic rhythm of development' and with a thread toward the relationship between mind and body - as life is a quantum process in which imagination sustains the realm of spirit, (or in forming a nucleus with superpositions in photosynthesis) it's about quantum entanglements, as the brain is connected to the universe at a quantum level - it needs to be nourished for genuine sustainability.

What's great about Hesse's glass bead game is the kaleidoscopic nature of this nourishment, in integrating all fields of knowledge through universal symbolism. Even if existentialism is 'an island of the spirit' you know, risk-taking is also about having faith in abilities 'to execute the directives of your heart' that's why the heart precedes the head in any realm right? Engagement is the synthesis of all human learning (and freed from the entrenchment of cultural identity) it actively pursues reconciliation and cooperation, by that, it's a reconciliation between the sciences and the arts yeah?

With your hipbone games, is that your intention as well? Like Hermann Hesse imagining centuries in the future, is it about looking into the distance for a new millennium to rise up in search of self knowledge. Or is it about the luck of the draw, when solving puzzles to get to the next level? (Or as an experience of the transcendent, used as a transformational device?) For this kind of magic, what do you think of Kant's idea, of having knowledge before the participation of the mind? Is that what you meant by 'depth dimensions?'

If the essence of gaming is patterning, I agree education and games should merge. And yeah, I find it interesting that Hesse discovered theosophy through the glass bead game, as a 'unifying symbol of fulfilling our evolutionary path'...to experience rebirth in the grand epochs of history'... or you know, as an alternative to rolling over and leaving it to the few who want to 'own the sky' he called for a new consciousness in social responsibility, the spiritual ideal put back into the service of life.

I agree too, whether in game playing or in reality, it's not always freedom and detachment that are the conditions for correct analysis and action. In uniting thought and action, it was Hesse who saw it as a divine game, an ever present 'eternal idea' in the movement towards Mind, believing it to be compassionate social consciousness, that gives 'birth to a new world.'

And so, the trick in rebalancing any meditation in action, is to be eternally present for a glimpse of the future, right?

As a Brit living in the U.S. you'd appreciate the words of poet Ted Hughes Charles, who was big on sensing rather than thinking. He once mused in Shakespeare and the Goddess of Being 'poetry is a healing benevolence that used to be the privilege of the gods' and on risk-taking 'it's one way of making things happen the way you want them to.' Often a 'Quest' was his theme too yeah, with encounters of folklore from primitive societies. Connected to risk-taking (with peacemaking) in his poem book Crow - a series of explorations of social behavior reveal - 'there were two gods, one much bigger than the other, loving his enemies and having all the weapons'...

and...'so with joy, laughter he wept. And at last tear by tear, something came clear...a divining rod.' A possible interpretation of this, is that the two gods are vision and venture, one can't do without the other. Of course he could have meant, one was God and the other the spark in wo/man - and with that - anything is possible.

LOL, Jo:

You're not only making a number of observations that are relevant to our topic here, you're also touching on many of my own personal interests -- so for the record, I'd like to say that I'm hipbone with the ISP earthlink.net, and invite you to contact me there for further wanderings in the various fields of interest we seem to have in common...